Climate · Regulation · Finance

Climate risk and value, quantified.

We translate climate change, carbon regulation, and the energy transition into clear financial impact — the kind you can put in a model, a memo, or a deal. Rigorous, commercial, and built for investors, boards, and lenders.

15+ yrs
across climate & finance
~$100B
in assets advised
U of T
climate-strategy instructor
ACT — organic morel motif
Who we help

We work with the people who decide when climate meets capital.

Investors & asset owners

Price physical and transition risk in a deal or across a portfolio, and translate it into the language of returns, credit, and value.

Companies raising capital

Turn a low-carbon process or product into a fundable, reportable value story — for pitch decks, S-1s, and sustainability disclosure.

Banks & lenders

Build climate risk into underwriting and turn it into products that protect the book and open new revenue.

Corporates & shareholders

Create shareholder value through low-carbon and sustainability — with a focus on cutting expenses, lifting asset values, and opening new revenue.

Selected work

Real engagements, described to protect our clients.

All work
Low-carbon critical-minerals production
Capital raising

Turning a low-carbon process into IPO value

Quantified a critical-minerals producer's low-carbon advantage for a pre-IPO raise and regulatory filing.

Flooded public-transit infrastructure
Investment risk

Pricing climate risk on an infrastructure investment

Assessed climate-related credit risk on a public-transit debt investment, using only public data.

Read the sample memo
Flood-exposed residential property
Lending

Turning physical climate risk into a new lending line

Designed a resilience-services concept for a bank that protects the loan book and creates new revenue.

15+ yearsacross climate and finance
~$100Bin assets advised across Canada, the UK & Europe
U of Tinstructor, Climate Change Strategy
PublishedJournal of Impact and ESG Investing
PCAFcertified; background at PwC & climate metrics and targets
Carbonmarket veteran — in credit creation and market trading
What we do

What does climate actually mean for this number?

We help investors, companies, and lenders answer a specific kind of question. Below is what clients hire us for, and how we work. Every engagement is grounded in the same three things — real climate science, current regulation, and finance that stands up to scrutiny.

01

Quantify the value of low-carbon

For companies raising capital or reporting

A lower-carbon process or product is often worth more than the founders realize — but only if the value is quantified in terms investors and regulators recognize. We build that case: what the emissions advantage is worth, where regulation turns it into a moat, and how it reads in a pitch deck, an S-1, or a sustainability disclosure.

What this looks like
  • Life-cycle emissions modelling and a defensible low-carbon claim
  • Carbon-credit revenue potential — methodologies, markets, value, and the path to monetization
  • Carbon-border (CBAM) exposure and advantage in export markets
  • Reporting-driven advantage (CSRD / ISSB) as customers demand supplier-specific carbon data
  • Applicable tax credits and incentives
  • Investor- and filing-ready write-ups, numbers, and narrative
02

Price climate risk in an investment

For investors & asset owners

When you're underwriting an asset or a deal, "climate risk" is only useful once it's a number. We assess physical and transition risk against recognized scenarios and translate it into the metrics your investment and risk teams already use — so it can sit inside a memo, a model, or a credit decision.

What this looks like
  • Asset- and deal-level physical risk (flood, extreme heat, and other hazards) under IPCC scenarios
  • Transition risk — carbon pricing, technology, and market shifts — under IEA and NGFS scenarios
  • Translation into financial impact: operating, capital, revenue, and credit (PD / LGD) terms
  • TCFD- and ISSB-aligned analysis, and clear go/no-go and structuring recommendations
  • Portfolio-level concentration and early-warning indicators
03

Turn climate risk into revenue

For banks & financial institutions

Climate change is reshaping the risk on every loan book — but the same data that flags the risk can open new business. We help lenders build physical-risk analysis into origination and portfolio management, and design the client-facing products that protect assets and generate revenue.

What this looks like
  • Location-based hazard, vulnerability, and exposure analysis across a loan or mortgage portfolio
  • Identification of high-exposure clients and early-warning indicators for delinquency and collateral impairment
  • Design of resilience products and services (e.g. resilience lending, insurance referral, retrofit finance)
  • Integration of physical-risk screening into loan origination
  • Tie-in to sustainable-finance and climate-reporting targets
04

Monetize carbon

Cross-cutting — companies, project owners & communities

Carbon markets and carbon regulation are full of value and full of traps. We assess where a real, sellable carbon opportunity exists — and where it doesn't — and help structure it properly, including who owns the rights and how the revenue is governed.

What this looks like
  • Voluntary carbon-credit feasibility — methodology, registry pathway, volume, value, and timeline
  • Offset and nature-based project scoping (e.g. forest carbon), baselines, and design options
  • Carbon-border (CBAM) strategy for importers and exporters
  • Ownership, rights, and governance structures around carbon revenue
  • Realistic revenue, cost, and break-even analysis under current carbon prices
05

Scale climate across a portfolio

For asset owners with many assets and lean teams

Applying a climate lens to one asset is analysis. Applying it consistently across a whole portfolio is a system. We build the tools, methods, and frameworks that let a small team do the second — including approaches we've published and peer-reviewed.

What this looks like
  • Portfolio emissions accounting and attribution (including our published Delta Attribution method)
  • Repeatable diligence and underwriting frameworks for a sustainability lens
  • Integration of emissions, financial, and scenario data into investment analysis
  • Carbon-exposure reduction across a portfolio without sacrificing returns
  • Practical tooling (data, models, and workflow) that fits a lean team
06

Account for financed & insured emissions

For banks, investors & insurers

For a financial institution, the emissions that matter aren't in the office — they're in the loan book, the investment portfolio, and the underwriting book, and they're what regulators, investors, and net-zero commitments increasingly ask about. We measure them properly, to the PCAF standard, so you can report with confidence and manage what you've measured — not just disclose it.

What this looks like
  • Financed-emissions accounting across loans and investments (PCAF-aligned)
  • Insurance-associated emissions for underwriting portfolios (PCAF)
  • Data-quality scoring and a practical path to improving it
  • Baselines that stand up for target-setting and disclosure (CSRD / ISSB, net-zero commitments)
  • Attribution and change-tracking (including our Delta Attribution method)
How we work

The method that convinces the technical buyer.

We start from the number.

Every engagement ends in something you can put in a model, a memo, or a decision — not a glossy report that sits on a shelf.

We use real science and current regulation.

IEA, IPCC, and NGFS scenarios; live regulation — CBAM, CSRD, carbon pricing, critical-minerals policy. We show our sources and our math.

We're independent and hands-on.

The senior person scoping the work is the one doing it. No layers, no hand-offs.

Selected work

Real engagements, described to protect our clients.

Most of our work is confidential, so the case studies below are anonymized. They're real engagements, described in a way that protects our clients. Where we can share method openly — like the transit climate-risk memo — we do.

Low-carbon critical-minerals production
Case study 01 · Capital raising

Turning a low-carbon process into IPO value

Who

A North American critical-minerals producer, preparing a pre-IPO raise and regulatory filing.

The challenge

The company had a genuinely low-carbon production process, but its environmental advantage wasn't quantified in terms investors or regulators would credit.

What we did

Modelled the life-cycle emissions advantage; sized the carbon-credit revenue opportunity; mapped carbon-border (CBAM) exposure and advantage in the EU; assessed the reporting-driven advantage as automakers demand low-carbon supply; and valued applicable tax credits — then packaged it for the investor deck and filing.

The outcome

A quantified, defensible value story linking the company's low-carbon process to shareholder value — carried into the investor deck and the regulatory filing.

Case study 02 · Investment risk

Pricing climate risk on an infrastructure investment

Who

A large institutional infrastructure investor considering a 10-year debt investment in regional public transit.

The challenge

The investor needed to know whether climate risk — physical or transition — could impair the credit over the term.

What we did

Assessed transition risk (carbon pricing, ridership/technology, electricity) and physical risk (extreme heat, flooding) against IEA and IPCC scenarios using only public data, then translated it into credit terms — modelling probability of default from a base case to a climate-stress case, and identifying the true tail risk (a compounding fiscal-and-flood scenario).

The outcome

A clear, defensible view — no risk assessed as severe over the term — with specific structuring and due-diligence recommendations and early-warning indicators to monitor.

This memo is public — read it in full
Flooded public-transit infrastructure
Flood-exposed residential property
Case study 03 · Lending

Turning physical climate risk into a new lending line

Who

A retail and commercial bank.

The challenge

Rising physical climate risk was quietly changing the risk profile of the mortgage and loan book — and the bank was leaving both protection and revenue on the table.

What we did

Designed a "client resilience services" concept: overlay location-based hazard data on the existing portfolio, identify high-exposure clients, engage them proactively, and offer targeted resilience products — while feeding physical-risk screening back into loan origination.

The outcome

A concept that protects the loan book from climate-driven default and collateral impairment while creating new product revenue and deepening client trust — with defined KPIs to track it.

Case study 04 · Carbon feasibility

Scoping forest-carbon revenue for a First Nation

Who

A coastal First Nation exploring revenue from its lands.

The challenge

Significant potential forest-carbon value across treaty and traditional territory — but real questions about feasibility, the agreements required, and how to keep decisions and benefits with the Nation.

What we did

Scoped a feasibility study — carbon potential under the applicable protocols, the terms of an Atmospheric Benefit Agreement benchmarked to comparable deals, project design and baseline options, realistic revenue and break-even, and — critically — the governance and ownership structure.

The outcome

A clear, honest basis for the Nation to decide on the merits, plus a funding pathway to cover the study.

Coastal forest — forest-carbon feasibility
Insights

Where climate meets capital.

Notes on where climate meets capital — regulation worth watching, methods worth using, and the occasional sample of how we work.

Delta Attribution — portfolio emissions decomposition
Method · Peer-reviewed· 2025

Delta Attribution: understanding what actually moved your portfolio's emissions

A short write-up of the peer-reviewed method for decomposing changes in portfolio emissions — published in the Journal of Impact and ESG Investing. It separates what actually moved your number: real decarbonization versus market and allocation effects.

Read the summary
Sample · Downloadable PDF

A climate-risk memo, in full

Our illustrative, public-data assessment of the climate-related credit risk on an infrastructure debt investment. A direct look at how we assess and quantify climate risk.

Download the memo
Explainer · Regulation

What CBAM and CSRD mean for anyone selling into Europe

A plain-language explainer on the two pieces of EU carbon regulation reshaping supply chains — and why low-carbon suppliers stand to win.

Read the explainer

Peter posts regularly — regulation worth watching, methods worth using, and the occasional sample of how we work. New pieces appear here as they publish.

About

The best climate risk is an anti-climactic one.

The name is only half a joke. The best outcome for a climate risk is that it turns out to be anti-climactic — identified early, priced properly, and managed long before it becomes a crisis. That's the job: take something loud, uncertain, and politically charged, and turn it into something quiet, quantified, and decision-ready.

Anti-Climatic Consulting is an independent climate and finance advisory. We work with investors, companies, and lenders who need climate translated into real financial terms — not sentiment, not slideware, but numbers that hold up in a model, a memo, or a deal. We're deliberately lean: you get the senior person, doing the work.

Peter Howard, Principal

Peter Howard

Principal
Based in Toronto

Peter has spent 15+ years bringing a commercial lens to climate — decarbonization, the energy transition, and physical climate risk — across infrastructure, energy, and real-asset investments. He underwrites climate-related upside and risk the way an investor does: asset-level financial models, structured decarbonization projects, and complex scenario analysis translated into clear financial impact for investors, boards, and senior executives.

That combination is unusual. Peter pairs deep technical climate expertise — GHG accounting, physical and transition risk, scenario analysis (IEA, IPCC, NGFS) — with real corporate finance and accounting: project finance, deal structuring, credit analysis, and financial modelling. He's as comfortable with a life-cycle emissions model as with a probability-of-default calculation.

Selected background

Advised institutional investors representing ~$100B in assets across Canada, the UK, and Europe — reducing client portfolio carbon exposure by 20–40% while managing transition and allocation risk.

Instructor, Climate Change Strategy, University of Toronto — teaching applied climate strategy to senior finance, consulting, and corporate professionals (recent rating 4.4/5, among the highest in the program).

VP, Project Development & Sustainability, Pond Technologies — led development and underwriting of ~$35M in co-investment, grants, and debt for capital-intensive decarbonization projects, and built a $5M/year technology-licensing practice.

Senior Policy Advisor, Ontario Ministry of the Environment & Climate Change — advised government leadership on carbon-market and emissions-regulation design, and led investment diligence on ~$30M of early-stage funding.

Manager, Climate Change & Sustainability, PwC — delivered climate-risk and sustainability engagements for large corporates, reporting to executives and boards.

Director, Zerofootprint (London, UK) — built a climate-advisory practice and developed carbon-offset projects for international clients.

Credentials
  • Published: Delta Attribution: A New Method for Understanding Changes in Portfolio Emissions, Journal of Impact and ESG Investing (2025)
  • PCAF-certified (Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials)
  • CPA (in progress), CPA Ontario
  • ISO 14064-1 (GHG Inventories); LEED Accredited Professional
  • Master of Environmental Studies (Environmental Economics), York University; Diploma in Business & the Environment, Schulich School of Business; BSc Combined Honours, University of King's College

Based in Toronto. Working with clients across Canada, the US, and Europe.

15+ yearsacross climate and finance
~$100Bin assets advised across Canada, the UK & Europe
U of Tinstructor, Climate Change Strategy
PublishedJournal of Impact and ESG Investing
PCAFcertified; background at PwC & climate metrics and targets
Carbonmarket veteran — in credit creation and market trading
Get in touch

Let's talk it through.

If you've got a climate question with a number attached to it — a deal to underwrite, a raise to support, a book to protect, a carbon opportunity to test — I'd like to hear about it. The first conversation is a conversation, not a pitch.

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Start a conversation

Have a climate question with a number attached to it?

Whether you're pricing risk in a deal, building a value story for a raise, or figuring out what carbon regulation means for your business — let's talk it through.